Clicks Are Down 42%, LinkedIn Reach Down 47% But You’re Raging At The Wrong Target via @sejournal, @gregjarboe
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Tony Uphoff's viral LinkedIn post blames AI for a 50% reach drop, but the real lesson is structural disruption, not decline. Here's the fix. VIP CONTRIBUTOR Greg Jarboe 44 seconds ago ⋅ 6 min read VIP CONTRIBUTOR Greg Jarboe President and co-founder at SEO-PR Bio Follow The rage filling your LinkedIn feed this month, the algorithm rants, the Substack discovery complaints, the essays announcing the machines have finally won, is built on real numbers pointed at the wrong conclusion. That is the argument Tony Uphoff made in his Substack post. (Uphoff and I both worked at Ziff-Davis between 1988 and 1993. Even then, every platform shift in trade publishing got treated by somebody in the industry as the end of the business.) According to Uphoff’s Substack post, organic clicks have fallen roughly 42% since Google’s AI Overviews scaled across search results, a figure Define Media Group reached by pulling Search Console data across 64 sites and one that matches an older Pew Research panel finding that only 8% of searchers click through to an organic result when an AI Overview appears, against 15% when it doesn’t. LinkedIn organic reach is down 47% year-over-year since the platform rebuilt its feed ranking around 360Brew, a 150-billion-parameter model that reads a post’s expertise and dwell time instead of counting reactions. A Pangram Labs scan of more than a million posts found 41% of LinkedIn’s long-form content is now fully AI-written, the highest share of any platform measured, which is part of why LinkedIn added a “seems like AI slop” reporting button on July 30. Then there’s the workforce number. Mercer’s 2026 Global Talent Trends survey put employee fear of losing a job to AI at 40% worldwide, up from 28% two years ago. Challenger, Gray & Christmas has tracked AI as the reason cited in more than 101,000 announced job cuts through the first half of 2026, roughly double the full-year 2025 pace. Line up the dates, and Uphoff has a point that none of this looks gradual. Substack overhauled Notes discovery late last year. Google’s AI Overviews went from a small share of queries at launch to roughly half of them by this spring. LinkedIn shipped 360Brew that same quarter. Three unrelated companies moved in the same six-month window, which is exactly why it doesn’t feel like coincidence to the people living through it. Uphoff’s actual argument isn’t about any of those platforms specifically. It’s about a distinction he thinks the industry keeps missing. Decline means the thing you’re doing has no version worth saving, yet structural disruption means the function still matters, and the form it takes is changing underneath you. He’s lived through that gap before, at ThomasNet when print directories went digital and at UBM TechWeb when the 2008 financial crisis hit the same month as the print-to-digital collapse. In both cases, the loudest reaction in the building wasn’t strategy; it was people angry at the channel that was disappearing, not the bet the business had made on staying tied to it. Uphoff’s closing line is the one worth highlighting in bold: “The machines aren’t taking anything from you that you haven’t already agreed to rent out.” Search Engine Strategies conferences in the 2000s were full of people convinced Google’s next algorithm update would kill their business model. Some of those businesses did die. The ones that survived stopped arguing with the algorithm and started asking what function they actually performed for a reader or a buyer, then rebuilt around that function instead of the channel. I think it’s the piece practitioners skip past fastest because arguing with the algorithm feels more like doing something than rebuilding does. Here’s where I want more precision than Uphoff’s column gives. Not every number in his own “receipts” section survived contact with my scrutiny. The 85% Business Insider traffic collapse Uphoff cites came from a Wall Street Journal chart that the Journal itself corrected on July 22, three weeks before his piece ran. The corrected trailing 12-month figures put Business Insider’s decline at 43%, not 85%, alongside a 28% drop for USA Today and a 44% drop for The Washington Post. The original chart had already circulated widely across the SEO industry, including in posts that drew tens of thousands of views, before the correction caught up to it. That doesn’t undercut Uphoff’s argument. A 43% traffic loss still supports “this is structural, not decline.” But it’s a reminder that AI-era numbers move fast enough that the version you saw shared last month may already be stale, and citing a corrected figure without noting the correction is exactly the kind of thing that erodes trust in every other number in the piece. Uphoff’s column ends with a gut check instead of a strategy, which is a fair choice for a leadership essay but leaves SEO practitioners without the next step. Here’s my version built for this audience. Second, audit what you actually own. Email lists, first-party data, and direct client relationships don’t get repriced by an algorithm update or a report button. If most of your visibility still depends on a single platform’s mood, that’s a business risk to fix this quarter, not a talking point for your next post. Third, stop measuring content by whether it ranks and start measuring it by whether it earns a citation, a save, or a reply. LinkedIn’s own algorithm now rewards saves and sends over reactions. Google’s AI Overviews reward content structured for extraction and named sourcing. Writing for the old signal in a system built on the new one is the fastest way to mistake structural disruption for decline. My view is simpler than Uphoff’s essay makes it sound. Every platform mentioned in this column changed what it rewards this year. None of them stopped rewarding value. The practitioners who spend the rest of 2026 proving they still deliver it, on whatever channel actually carries it, are going to look a lot smarter 12 months from now than the ones still arguing with a feed algorithm in the comments. Read Full Bio VIP CONTRIBUTOR Greg Jarboe President and co-founder at SEO-PR Before Greg Jarboe retired, he was the president of SEO-PR, which he co-founded with Jamie O’Donnell, from 2003 to 2025. ... Learn how to connect search, AI, and PPC into one unstoppable strategy. AI Search Isn’t Replacing Google, It’s Layering On Top – Similarweb Data How AI Chooses Which Brands To Recommend: From Relational Knowledge To Topical Presence The Future Of Search & AI: What I Learned From Google’s Latest Earnings Call Join 75,000+ Digital Leaders. Learn how to connect search, AI, and PPC into one unstoppable strategy. Learn how to connect search, AI, and PPC into one unstoppable strategy. In a world ruled by algorithms, SEJ brings timely, relevant information for SEOs, marketers, and entrepreneurs to optimize and grow their businesses -- and careers.
Source: Search Engine Journal
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